May 2016 Local Properties Market Intelligence Reports

la-housing-market-reportsClick to view interactive local real estate market intelligence reports below:

southbay-marketreport
South Bay Market Intelligence Report

South Bay Market Intelligence Report (Japanese Edition)

Palos Verdes & Harbor Market Intelligence Report
Palos Verdes & Harbor Market Intelligence Report (Japanese Edition)

Westside+ Market Intelligence Report
Westside+ Market Intelligence Report (Japanese Edition)

Interested in buying or selling your home? Please call me, Lucy Garber, at (310) 293-4866.

Good Time to Buy

la-southbay-housingpricesrise

Los Angeles County housing prices are on the rise. The median price of a home in Los Angeles County rose by 7% in December, compared with the same month a year ago, while the number of homes sold jumped by 3.5%.

According to CoreLogic DataQuick, the median price of a Los Angeles County home was $460,000 last month, up from $430,000 in December 2013.

So, if you’re in the market to buy a home, please contact me as prices may continue to rise. And with the record low interest rates, this is a great time to get into a new home.

I love to find the perfect home for you and make the process as easy and pleasant as possible.

Please contact me, Lucy Garber, at (310) 293-4866 (call or text), at via email lucygarber1@yahoo.com.

Reference: http://www.corelogic.com/

Looking Back on 2014 Housing Market Trends

The Strong Get Stronger

The jobs keep coming. Better yet, they keep coming at a faster pace.

Job growth was much stronger than nearly everyone expected in November. Payrolls for the month jumped 321,000 . At the same time, job numbers for October and September were revised up by 44,000. More of us are not only working, but we are earning more doing so. Average hourly earnings spiked 0.4% in November after edging up 0.1% in October.

At the beginning of the year, we said 200,000-or-more monthly job growth was key to a sustained recover. Job growth for the year has exceeded our expectations. All but one month reported over 200,000 in new jobs, while two months posted over 300,000 new jobs.

Job growth and economic growth go hand-in-hand. On the latter, many economists have ratcheted up their gross domestic product (GDP) growth expectations.

The U.S. Commerce Department believes final GDP growth will post at 4.6% at an annual rate for the third quarter, up from 3.6%. The economists at JPMorgan Chase see GDP growth posting at 4.4%, up from 4.3%. Barclays upped its final estimate to 4.2% from 4.1%. Annualized GDP growth above 4% is considered strong.

The growth we’re seeing in the waning months of 2014 certainly gives us reason to anticipate 2015. Indeed, we expect 2015 to be a breakout year for housing. In addition to continued economic growth, home prices will continue to rise, though at a rate that will likely revert to historical norms. This is good news because it means market expectations will be better calibrated with market reality.

When it comes to lending reality, we’re seeing a sustained pick up in purchase-mortgage activity. Last week, the Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly survey showed purchase applications were up again. Over the past two months, purchase applications have trended generally higher.

We expect purchase activity to continue to trend positively. With growth comes more willingness to lend. Lenders and regulations naturally become more willing to reach further out on the risk curve, thus creating a larger pool of potential buyers. (To wit: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac recently introduced new programs that allow borrowers to put only 3% down for a mortgage.)

This market is extraordinary in that we have strong economic growth coupled with low interest rates. Despite last week’s strong jobs report, mortgage rates have actually drifted lower. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is still regularly quoted below 4%.
With that said, we shouldn’t expect mortgage rates to remain at these levels if growth continues to steam ahead at the current rate. One day the Federal Reserve will move to lift interest rates. Growth sustained at the current rate means that day will come sooner than later.

Economic Indicator Consensus Estimate Analysis
Home Builder’s Sentiment Index (December) 57 Index Important. Sentiment remains high and points to more starts and sales in 2015.
Housing Starts (November) 1.02 Million (Annualized) Important. Recent economic data point to rising starts through the first quarter of 2015.
Mortgage Applications None Important. Purchase activity continues to trend higher.
Consumer Price Index (November) All Goods: 0.1% (Decrease)
Core: 0.2% (Increase)
Important. Falling energy prices are removing any inflation threat that might exist.

Still Plenty of Room to Run

2014 has seen significant improvement in housing. We think there is plenty of room for housing to move higher when the market is viewed from a historical perspective.
Private real estate investment, for one, is still at levels that existed a decade ago. The same is true of household real estate value as a percent of GDP and mortgage debt as percent of GDP. The market is running sub-optimally. That means there is still plenty of upside to capture.

It’s also worth remembering that we are a growing country. There are more people than a decade ago. Our population increases year over year. Millenials in particular are a fertile source of pent-up housing demand. Contrary to many accounts, young people still want to buy a home. With the job outlook continually improving, many more of them will.

What’s more, a rising tide will lift all ships. We expect to see more activity in all segments of the market. We expect not only to see more people enter the market, but we expect to see more buying and selling within the different price segments.

In short, we look forward to 2015, and we would not be surprised if it turns out to be one of the best years for sales and lending that we’ve seen in over a decade.

Source: AR Smith

So Where Is the Housing Market vs. Dave’s 2013 Predictions?

It can be fun to look back and see if predictions are accurate.

This year, like every year, is flying by and much has happened with our local real estate market. One thing that Dave said at the beginning of this year that I agree 100% with is that, “The housing recovery is not on solid ground.

My concern is the sharp rise in prices and interest rates.
The investors may have cooled off a bit but “real buyers” are pushing their monetary limits now. These are the people that have to get loans and plan on living in the property. Lenders are still very tight with their money and the appraisals have been coming in low. The short pays and shadow inventory in the South Bay are few and far between now. There is still huge pent up demand in the better areas of the South Bay.

My question is… Are we pushing it? Double bubble? Time will tell.

View Dave Lingier’s Top 10 Housing Predictions for 2013 and let us know what you think. Last year Dave was at 85% accuracy.